Russia Demographics (1/2): Why the Russian Population Is Rapidly Declining

Subject: cities and country

Keywords: demographics

Russia may be the largest country in the world (Size Matters), Russia’s demographics clearly show it’s losing ground. Once among the most populous nations, it now ranks around ninth – and risks slipping further. Low birth rates, an aging population, and recent developments are accelerating Russia’s population decline.

In addition to natural population change, emigration also plays a major role in Russia’s demographic shifts – see part 2: Why So Many Russians Are Leaving the Country.

Population projections for Russia

A look into the future in By 2060, this country will have the world’s largest population (World Economic Forum), also see the List of countries by past and projected future population – but an article on the demographics of Russia should begin with the past.

The impact of World War II on Russia’s population

The Soviet Union suffered approximately 27 million losses during World War II (Wikipedia, Grokipedia, Meduza) – one of the highest human tolls of any conflict in history. A significant share of these losses consisted of young men, creating a long-lasting demographic imbalance that is still visible in Russia’s population structure today.

The birth rate in Russia

On the Total fertility rate map, Russia appears in the same low range as countries like Norway and Australia, with roughly 11 births per 1,000 people per year. In contrast, many countries in Africa still exceed 40. Russia’s low birth rate is not a recent development but a long-term structural issue. It has been a policy concern for decades and has led to repeated government measures, including financial incentives and support programs aimed at encouraging larger families.

Putin’s Demographic Revival Is A Pipe Dream (The Moscow Times, 2020)
Putin promises hard cash, tax breaks, and mortgage relief for families with more children (CNBC, 2019)
Putin’s pro-family support program (OSW, 2017)
Russian support for family programs (Russia Beyond, 2015); also from the same medium The benefits of being a Russian mother (2015)

Life Expectancy in Russia

In the life expectancy rankings, Russia ranks only 119th, with a score of 73.15 (also see Georank). This places it well below many high-income countries, where people tend to live significantly longer. If you want to live a long life, head to Hong Kong or Japan, and not even vacation in Lesotho or Afghanistan.

Population decline in Russia

More deaths than births – logically, this leads to population decline. This is nothing new – but the numbers and reports are becoming more alarming. See the recent Russia’s population will decline by 352,500 people this year – 11 times more than in 2019 (Meduza, 2020) and (same channel, also 2020) Haunted by demographic holes: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov weighs in on Russia’s declining population.

Population, Health, Declining Population
(Small Circles Forward, 2020)

In three parts, an overview (2020) of Russia’s population (5 mins), health (9 mins), and shrinking population (6 mins). Also from Small Circles Forward is Explaining the demographic transition (2020, 8 mins).

Why Russia is Shrinking Fast
(RealLifeLore, 2019, 10 m)

Update (2026): Russia’s population continues to decline

Since the outbreak of the war against Ukraine, demographic prospects have deteriorated further. The number of young men has declined from around seven to six million, as a direct result from the war. At the same time, attention to the population issue is growing, as reflected in the recent wave of videos on the topic.

Russia’s demographic implosion is now too late to stop
(RFU News, 2025, 6 m)